India’s ascent to a $5 trillion economy and net-zero by 2070 hinges on copper, the metal powering EVs, renewables, and smart infrastructure. With demand soaring from 1.7 million tonne (MT) to 3.24 MT by 2030 – and 9 MT by 2047 – India’s 90% import reliance for copper concentrates exposes it to supply shocks. The recent GST cuts, policy reforms, smelting challenges, ESG imperatives, and FTAs signal a defining moment: Scale domestic production or risk derailing the green transition.
India can lead globally; hesitation invites crisis.
India’s copper demand is surging due to rapid infrastructure growth, clean energy initiatives, and government policies like Make in India, leading to a 13% increase in FY24. Projections show a 5x increase by 2050 and a six-fold rise by 2047, with demand driven by building construction, transportation, industrial use, and the expanding electric vehicle sector.
By 2030, EVs may consume 10 MT of copper globally, with India’s market growing at 14.3% CAGR through 2034. A 7% demand spike in 2025, driven by 500 GW renewables and grids needing 1.2 MT more, underscores copper’s role. Infrastructure like 5G and rail pushes the sector to $25.06 billion by 2032 at 7.2% CAGR. Yet, FY24-25 output was just 497,000 MT, with imports at 1.2 MT. Incentives for EV and solar manufacturing are critical to bridge this gap.
The September 2025 GST overhaul, slashing rates to 5% and 18%, cuts copper handicraft taxes to 5%, boosting rural economies and consumption by 5-7%. The July 2025 Copper Vision Document lures FDI for smelters and fosters India-Chile partnerships. Reduced customs duties on copper concentrate and scrap, Countervailing Duty (CVD) on tubes, mandatory Quality Control Orders (QCO & BIS), and the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme have slashed copper tube imports from 120,000 tonne, fueling self-reliance. New capacity of 150,000 tonne, led by firms like Hindalco and Adani, takes total output to 225,000 tonne, enabling exports and embodying “Atmanirbhar Bharat.”
Smelting capacity at 1 MT falters post-Tuticorin’s 2018 closure, cutting output by 40% and leaving ore at 2.8 lakh tonne in May 2025. Low treatment charges worsen losses. Tax holidays and AI-driven mining in Rajasthan and Andhra could hit 2 MT by 2030, averting a 5% dip.
With 70% of global mines targeting ESG by 2025, India must recycle (50% from scrap) and fund low-emission smelting to meet EU carbon taxes. FTAs with UAE, UK, and Australia boosts tube exports, but U.S. 50% tariffs threaten $13,000 tonne. “Copper corridors” in FTAs can secure supplies.
India’s copper moment demands action: Triple mining budgets, launch a “Copper Mission,” and forge alliances. Backed by PM Modi’s vision, the industry pledges quality, affordability, and “Swadeshi” pride. Copper weaves economic and environmental futures – mine it boldly, or dim the green glow.